Published: August 21, 2008

This is the first of two stories about the November election and the efforts of grassroots organizations to get the vote out.  Next Week: Republican grassroots organizations and the fight to keep Virginia red.

Joseph Harmon feels good about presumptive Democratic Party presidential candidate Barrack Obama’s chances to win Virginia this year in the upcoming election. Of course, as chairman of the City of Fairfax Democratic Committee, it’s his job to be positive.

Even so, changes in the political landscape over the past eight years have put Democrats in a position to take the Old Dominion state for the first time since 1964, when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater with just under 54 percent of the vote. That possibility has grassroots organizers like Harmon excited about their party’s prospects this fall.

“The Obama campaign, in many ways, is kind of changing the way we do business,” said Harmon, who has served as chairman of the FCDC for almost a year. “Because the reaction has been so big, it’s almost been game changing in terms of getting people involved in politics.” It’s not just the presidential race that has captured the attention of local Democratic organizations. The party is also fielding Mark Warner for the Senate and Gerry Connolly for the 11th Congressional District. Warner, the former Virginia governor who left office in 2005 with an 80 percent approval rating, enjoys broad support among Virginians and was something of a dark horse pick in a crowded Democratic presidential primary field until publicly declining to run in October 2006. Connolly, the current chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, has name recognition in Northern Virginia, where the 11th Congressional District is located.

In the latest polls by RasmussenReports.com, Warner, who earlier this month snagged the prestigious slot as keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention in Denver next month, is leading his Republican opponent Jim Gilmore (also a former governor) 59 percent- 33 percent. Though Rasmussen and other polling organizations do not track individual House races, Connolly’s campaign claims internal polls show their candidate with a 52 percent-21 percent edge over Republican Keith Fimian. However, as of June 30, Fimian has raised more money than his better-known Democratic rival, banking $1.3 million to Connolly’s $936,484, according to the Center for Responsive Politics [www.opensecrets.org.]

Jaime Contreras, capital area director of the Service Employees International Union Local 32BJ, spent the past week anvassing the City of Fairfax for Democrats and registering Hispanic voters. According to Contreras, a combination of issues, prime among them being comprehensive immigration reform, have started to sway Latino voters to the Democratic side. “We happen to be one of the largest unions in the area with some of the most Latino members. That’s the reason why a lot of folks are interested,” he said. “Obviously, immigration reform is an issue that people care deeply about, and Obama has said all the right things about it.”

The emerging Latino vote, a key block of voters that led to Republican victories in both the 2000 and 2004 presidential race, is slowly starting to swing more Democratic.

According to a report by the Pew Hispanic Center, approximately 65 percent of registered Latino voters surveyed nationwide said they identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, while just 21 percent identify with or lean toward the Republican Party.

Contreras said the tide of Latino voters began turning away from the GOP after the Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed the Border Protection, Antiterrorism and Illegal Immigration Control Act of 2005. The bill, which Contreras described  as “an attempt to intimidate people” and “basically unenforceable,” set stricter standards on a host of immigration-related laws and required the construction of a 700 miles fence along the U.S.-Mexican border.

Though the largely GOP backed bill ultimately failed to pass the Senate, Contreras pointed to it as an example of the Republicans losing touch with the Latino voter.

According to Harmon, that opened the door for local and national Democratic organizations to begin courting Latinos more heavily. “We’ve had a number of events and training sessions on how to register Latino voters, as well as African Americans and other groups,” he said, adding that he didn’t quite know how much of an impact that would have in Fairfax, where a majority of voters are still white. “We certainly welcome it with open arms. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.” Frank Blechman, a member of the Springfield Democratic Committee, said that grassroots organizations typically have less impact during a presidential election cycle because of the prominent role that the state and national branches play along with the campaign itself in coordinating election-related activities. “In a presidential election year, 75-80 percent of the people are going to vote, whether you do anything or not,” said Blechman. “My own experience shows that a neighbor talking to neighbors is a powerful tool and it’s going to contribute in some small way, but I don’t think any of us can say at this point how much.” Toni Travis, professor of government and politics at George Mason University, said that assessment was partially true. However, she said that grassroots organizations could have a powerful effect on national races in regards to mobilizing turnout. “I think they can have a tremendous impact in this election, certainly at the presidential level, which depends very much on turnout [among] independents, specifically young voters, and maybe first-time voters,” said Travis.

ACCORDING TO TRAVIS, one of the reasons Democrats are optimistic about taking Virginia this year is due to the excitement caused by the Obama campaign. “Obama has just presented a very different candidacy from any presidential candidate we’ve ever had,” she said. “Part of it is his background is different, and part of it is his youth which is reminiscent of Kennedy for people of a certain generation.” Harmon said that buzz is real, and local organizations like his are focused on achieving a Democratic sweep this year. “Next few months is going to be real engaging, on every level,” Harmon said. “We’re not taking any of this for granted, you know people here in the media, are saying Virginia is up for grabs, it absolutely is.”